A number of observations can be made from these figures concerning the Protestant population in the Irish Republic:

The relative Protestant population was more or less constant in the period 1891 to 1911.

The relative Protestant population fell sharply (by over 30%) between 1911 to 1926.

The relative Protestant population has been declining at a more or less constant rate since 1926.

These effects have a number of causes:

In the period 1911 to 1921, the Home Rule movement was gaining momentum, and it began to be clear to Irish people that Home Rule was indeed going to be granted and that the resulting country would have a Republican government. Many of the Protestants living far from Ulster decided to remain, but in border areas many Protestants decided that it was worth moving house so that when Home Rule took place they would be in part which did not get Home Rule (today's Northern Ireland). This is what the majority of the Protestant reduction between 1911 and 1926 can be attributed to. This movement of Protestants out of the Irish Free State (as the Republic was known in 1921) continued after the independence also.

In the border counties (Donegal, Leitrim, Cavan, Monaghan and Louth), there were many instances of Protestants being intimidated by more extreme neighbours and groups, most notably the IRA. There are records of Protestant farmers in these areas being attacked and killed. Many more of these Protestants responded by leaving their homes and moving across the border into Northern Ireland. This also contributed to the Protestant decline between 1911 and 1926.

In the Republic of Ireland, since 1926, there has been a constant pattern of Protestants marrying Catholics. In most counties (exceptions being Cork, Dublin and the border counties) there were insufficent Protestants to enable most Protestants to realistically marry another Protestant, so most married Catholics. Until recently, the Roman Catholic church had a rule that the children of mixed-marriages had to be brought up Catholic. Therefore, in Catholic-Protestant marriages the Protestant faith would die out after one generation. This is the main cause of the constantly declining Protestant populationsince 1926. (Historically, the action in Irish Catholic-Protestant marriages was for the girls to be brought up with the mother's religion, and the boys with the father's. This traditional Irish pattern was destroyed when the Vatican introduced the aforementioned rule early in the 20th century causing all children to be brought up Catholic.)

Until recently, there was discrimination against Protestants in the labour market of the Republic of Ireland. For example, Trinity College, although a Dublin University, was mainly attended by Protestants. (Even today it is a stronghold of Irish Unionism.) In many jobs, Trinity College was not accepted as a source of education, so applicants who had attended Trinity were automatically rejected. This had the effect of preventing most Protestants from applying for the jobs. There are other, more specific, cases of discrimination. For example county Clare library service was told by the Irish President, Eamonn de Valera, that it should employ a Catholic chief librarian. This discrimination meant that many Irish Protestants had to migrate to Northern Ireland or Britain to seek employment. This also contributed to the trend between 1926 and 1991.

The following map shows how the distribution of Ireland's Protestants changed in the 130 year period from 1861. The effect of Protestant depopulation in the Republic of Ireland is dramatic. In 1861 only the west coast and Kilkenny had less than 6% Protestant. Dublin and 2 of the border counties had over 20% Protestant. In 1991, however, all but 4 counties have less than 6% Protestant, the rest having less than 11%. There are no counties in the Irish Republic which have experienced a rise in the relative Protestant population over the period 1861 to 1991. Often, the counties which have managed to retain the highest proportion of Protestants are the ones which started off with a large proportion. In Northern Ireland, only counties Londonderry, Tyrone and Armagh have experienced a significant loss of relative Protestant population - and int hese cases the change is not as dramatic as in the Republic. See below for a detailed treatment of Protestants in Northern Ireland.

Future Protestant Recovery in the Irish Republic If the current trend were to continue at the same rate, there would be no Protestants in the Republic of Ireland by 2042. However there is evidence from the decade following the last census in 1991 that Protestantism in the Irish Republic may finally be making a recovery. This is based on several observations:

The Catholic church recently dropped the requirement that the children of Catholic-Protestant marriages be brought up Catholic. Since much of the Protestant decline has been attributed to this rule, this abolition may well stem the Protestant decline.

The Republic of Ireland is becoming much more liberal, and has recently been removing the Catholic church from the special position it once enjoyed in the country. This will inevitably reduce discrimination against Protestants, helping to stem the flow of Irish Protestants out of the Republic to the United Kingdom.

In the past decade, the Methodist church [a Protestant denomination] has reported that its membership in county Dublin has increased for the first time in over a century. This is apparently due mainly to Catholics converting to Protestantism.

The Irish Catholic church has recently been plagued by scandals involving the sex abuse of children, and this caused a significant backlash against the church by some of its members who either stopped attending church or began attending Protestant churches. This has been a catalyst to the recent growth of Protestantism in the Dublin area.

The conclusion would seem to be, therefore, that the Protestant population decline in the Republic of Ireland just may halt within a decade or two.